Sunday ScariesMay 31, 2026

Vol. 6 · Week of May 31, 2026

Sunday Scaries Vol. 6

SpaceX filed the largest IPO in history, a $75-80B raise at a $1.8T valuation. The 30-year Treasury yield hit a 19-year high at 5.2%, and Netflix's $82.7B all-cash buy of Warner Bros. Discovery heads to a vote. Five-minute recap before Monday.

SpaceX filed the largest IPO in history, a $75 to $80 billion raise at a $1.8 trillion valuation that puts 21 banks on one cover. The 30-year Treasury yield hit a 19-year high at 5.2%, with oil and mortgages as the transmission. And the largest media deal ever, Netflix's $82.7 billion all-cash buy of Warner Bros. Discovery, is heading to a shareholder vote. Five minutes, every section, ammo for Monday.

Top Stories of the Week

1. SpaceX filed the largest IPO in history. 21 banks are on the cover.

On May 20, SpaceX filed its S-1 to list on Nasdaq under ticker SPCX, targeting a $1.75 to $1.8 trillion valuation and a $75 to $80 billion raise. That obliterates Saudi Aramco's 2019 record of $29.4 billion. The filing showed $18.7 billion in 2025 revenue, up 34% year over year, against a $4.94 billion net loss driven by Starship capex and the February acquisition of xAI. Morgan Stanley sits left-lead on a syndicate of 21 underwriters. The roadshow starts June 4, with pricing targeted June 11 to 18. Unusually, up to 30% of shares are set aside for retail, well above the sub-10% typical for U.S. mega-cap listings.

Why you care: This is the biggest ECM event in a generation, and it puts almost every bookrunning desk on the Street in the same room. Knowing how a 21-bank syndicate splits economics, how a dual-class structure works, and how you value a loss-making compounder is live interview material right now.

Interview angle: "SpaceX can justify a $1.8 trillion valuation on a revenue multiple despite a $4.94 billion net loss because the market is paying for Starlink's recurring cash flows and reusable-launch optionality, not current GAAP earnings. The 21-bank syndicate is about distribution and balance-sheet reach, not advice."

2. The 30-year Treasury yield hit a 19-year high. Oil and mortgages are the transmission.

The 30-year yield crossed 5.2% this week, its highest since 2007, with the 10-year near 4.67%. Three forces are pushing it: oil prices lifted by the Iran conflict, inflation still running above target, and deficit concern after last year's tax legislation. The Treasury's 30-year auction cleared above 5% for the first time since 2007 and rattled equities mid-week. The move flows straight to households: the average 30-year mortgage jumped to 6.65% as a direct result.

Why you care: The long bond is the risk-free rate underneath every DCF and LBO model. A sustained 5%-plus 30-year lifts WACC, compresses terminal value, and raises the hurdle for leveraged financing, which pushes deal structures toward all-cash and asset-light. It is the first thing an interviewer expects you to reach for on the deal environment.

Interview angle: "A 30-year risk-free rate above 5% raises WACC, cuts the present value of terminal cash flows, and lifts LBO financing costs all at once. That is why you are seeing more all-stock and all-cash structures and fewer aggressively levered deals this quarter."

3. Netflix's $82.7B all-cash buy of Warner Bros. Discovery is heading to a vote.

The largest media acquisition ever is in its final stretch. Netflix's $82.7 billion all-cash purchase of Warner Bros. Discovery, at $27.75 per share, had its S-4 declared effective May 6, the proxy mailed to shareholders May 12, and a vote now imminent. The structure is the story: Netflix is funding an $82.7 billion deal entirely with cash and debt in a 5%-plus rate environment, with Wells Fargo leading the debt financing. Originally announced in December and amended to all-cash in January, the deal would fold HBO, the Warner Bros. studios, and CNN into the streamer.

Why you care: All-cash megadeals are rare when financing is this expensive, which makes the structure and the shareholder-vote mechanics worth understanding. Media and TMT groups are fielding questions on exactly this deal right now.

Interview angle: "Netflix going all-cash on Warner Bros. Discovery in a 5%-plus rate environment signals real confidence in the synergy case, because it is taking on expensive debt rather than diluting holders with stock. The open question for the vote is whether $27.75 fully values the studio and HBO assets."

Deals of the Week

SpaceX files for the largest IPO in history, $75 to $80B at a $1.8T valuation. Filed May 20 for a Nasdaq listing under SPCX. Roadshow June 4, pricing targeted June 11 to 18. The raise would more than double Saudi Aramco's 2019 record of $29.4B. Up to 30% of the deal is earmarked for retail. The syndicate economics alone are worth knowing cold: on a book this size, the left-lead's allocation and the gap between bookrunner and co-manager fees is the whole game.

Bookrunners (top of syndicate): Morgan Stanley (left-lead); Goldman Sachs (co-lead); Bank of America, Citigroup, JPMorgan Chase; plus 16 additional banks (21 total)
Legal: Not disclosed in the S-1 filing

Pro tip: Only one deal this week, because it is the only one that matters. SpaceX is your loss-making-compounder valuation story and your syndicate-mechanics story in a single filing: how 21 banks split a book, why Morgan Stanley's left-lead slot matters, and how you defend a $1.8 trillion price tag with no GAAP profit. Know it cold by Friday and you can carry any ECM conversation.

Recruiting Pulse

Banks are now naming AI as the reason, out loud. The six largest U.S. banks shed 15,000 jobs in Q1 while posting $47 billion in combined profit, up 18% year over year. The new part is the candor: BofA, Wells Fargo, and others are attributing the reductions to AI automation rather than a soft cycle. That changes how you should read a hiring freeze. It is not a market they expect to thaw, it is a smaller permanent footprint, which is why differentiation at the application stage and networking depth matter more than they did even a year ago.

Off-cycle is becoming the main PE channel, not the backup. Recent grads tell us the Apollo and General Atlantic move away from formal on-cycle recruiting for the 2027 associate class has changed how serious candidates plan year one. Off-cycle is now a primary path at several top funds, not a consolation prize. JPMorgan's policy of cutting analysts who accept future-dated PE offers inside 18 months complicates the old timing further. If you are targeting mega-fund or upper-middle-market PE, build firm-specific relationships early rather than waiting for a September sprint that may not run in its old form.

What's New on Superday AI

Three things worth your time this week:

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