Sunday Scaries Vol. 5

NextEra is buying Dominion in a $67B all-stock merger, the largest energy deal since 1998. The House passed the One Big Beautiful Bill by one vote and the 30-year yield ripped to 5.15%. Lincoln International just IPO'd at $421M. Five-minute recap before Monday.

Hey {{{FIRST_NAME|there}}}. NextEra is buying Dominion in the largest energy deal since ExxonMobil bought Mobil in 1998, the House passed Trump's $2.4 trillion reconciliation bill by a single vote and the 30-year yield ripped to 5.15%, and Lincoln International just IPO'd as the first U.S. mid-market advisory firm to go public in years. Five minutes, every section, ammo for Monday.

Top Stories of the Week

1. NextEra is buying Dominion for $67B. It is the largest energy deal since 1998.

NextEra Energy announced on May 18 that it will acquire Dominion Energy in an all-stock transaction valued at roughly $67 billion, combining two of the largest U.S. utilities into a single entity serving more than 15 million customers across the Southeast and Mid-Atlantic. NextEra holders end up with about 74.5% of the combined company; Dominion holders take 25.5%. Federal and state regulators have to clear it, with an expected close in mid-to-late 2027. This is the largest energy-sector M&A deal since ExxonMobil acquired Mobil in 1998.

Why you care: AI data-center power demand is now a primary driver of regulated utility consolidation, which pulls advisory mandates across bulge brackets and elite independents simultaneously. Goldman and JPMorgan ran sell-side, Lazard ran buy-side. If you are targeting infrastructure or power groups, this is the deal you have to know cold.

Interview angle: "The NextEra-Dominion merger is a direct function of hyperscalers locking in multi-decade power contracts. That raised the NPV of regulated utility cash flows enough to justify a 30-year all-stock premium."

2. The House passed the "One Big Beautiful Bill" 215-214. The 30-year yield ripped to 5.15%.

On May 22, the House passed Trump's omnibus reconciliation package by a single-vote margin. The CBO estimates the bill adds $2.3 to $2.4 trillion to federal deficits over the next decade. Bond markets reacted in real time: the 30-year Treasury yield climbed to 5.15%, its highest level since October 2023, as investors demanded a fatter term premium to hold long-dated U.S. paper. The bill now heads to the Senate, where amendments are expected.

Why you care: The 30-year is the underlying risk-free rate for LBO debt pricing and investment-grade bond issuance. A sustained move above 5% lifts the cost of capital for leveraged transactions, compresses entry multiples, and forces sponsors to restructure terms or fall back on more equity. Expect interviewers to probe whether you can connect fiscal policy to deal economics.

Interview angle: "The yield spike after the bill passed is a real-time illustration of how fiscal policy translates into deal economics. Higher term premiums raise the cost of senior secured debt, which directly compresses sponsor IRRs on any leveraged buyout funded in this environment."

3. Lincoln International went public. Independent advisory is now an asset class.

Lincoln International priced 21 million Class A shares at $20 each on May 20, the high end of its $18 to $20 range, raising about $421 million on the NYSE under ticker LCLN. Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley were joint lead bookrunners; Evercore ISI, BMO Capital Markets, and Citizens Capital Markets filled out the syndicate. Shares started trading May 20. Lincoln is one of the most active mid-market M&A and capital advisory firms in the U.S., and the IPO institutionalizes a long-standing private partnership.

Why you care: For anyone deciding between boutique and bulge bracket, this signals that scale and institutional ownership are no longer BB-exclusive. The independent advisory model now goes to public market scale on deal-flow credibility alone, without a trading desk or balance sheet.

Interview angle: "Lincoln's IPO is a useful reference when asked why I am drawn to advisory. The firm grew without a trading desk or balance sheet, went public on deal-flow credibility, and is now capitalized to compete on the largest mid-market mandates."

Deals of the Week

NextEra Energy buys Dominion Energy, $67B all-stock. Announced May 18, close expected mid-to-late 2027 pending federal and state regulatory review. Combines two of the largest U.S. utilities into a single entity serving 15M+ customers across the Southeast and Mid-Atlantic. NextEra holders take ~74.5%, Dominion holders ~25.5%. Strategic driver: AI data-center power demand lifting the NPV of regulated utility cash flows. The mandate split is worth memorizing on its own.

NextEra advisors: Lazard (lead financial); BofA Securities, Wells Fargo (co-financial); Kirkland & Ellis (legal)
Dominion advisors: Goldman Sachs, J.P. Morgan Securities (co-financial); McGuire Woods (legal)

Publicis Groupe buys LiveRamp, $2.5B equity / $2.2B EV, all-cash. Announced May 17. Publicis paid a 29.8% premium to LiveRamp's prior-day close. The deal shows how ad-tech is consolidating around first-party data infrastructure even in a higher-rate environment. The premium signals scarcity value. There are not many independent data-platform targets left worth bidding for.

Publicis advisors: BofA Securities (financial); Wachtell, Lipton, Rosen & Katz (legal)
LiveRamp advisors: Evercore (financial); Sullivan & Cromwell (legal)

Lincoln International IPO, $421M raised at $20 per share. Priced May 20, 21.05M Class A shares at the top of the $18 to $20 range. Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley as joint lead, with Evercore ISI, BMO, Citizens, KBW, Wolfe, and Nomura Alliance filling out the syndicate. First meaningful U.S. mid-market advisory firm IPO in years. Watch where the stock settles, because it is the first real market test for what independent advisory at scale is worth.

Underwriters: Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley (joint lead); Evercore ISI, BMO Capital Markets, Citizens Capital Markets (co-bookrunners); KBW, Wolfe, Nomura Alliance (co-managers)

Pro tip: Pick one and know it cold by Friday. NextEra-Dominion is your AI-power-demand utility M&A story with marquee bulge bracket advisor lineups on both sides. Publicis-LiveRamp is your scarcity-premium-on-first-party-data story. Lincoln is your independent-advisory IPO mechanics story. One you can speak to fluently beats three you skimmed.

Recruiting Pulse

Record IB fees are not translating into bigger analyst classes. Q1 2026 IB revenue hit records. Goldman advisory was up 48% year-over-year, JPMorgan IB fees up 28%, Morgan Stanley IBD up 36%. Candidates we talk to are describing hiring processes that run slower than the revenue line would suggest. Senior bankers and MDs are taking the bulk of the fee surge, and banks are leaning on AI productivity tools plus existing analyst capacity to absorb the deal load before committing to headcount. Read tighter classes into a strong IB market, not easy hiring.

Ghost hiring is showing up across bracket levels. Recent grads and current seniors describe superday processes that end without offers or explanation, with postings quietly pulled weeks later. Not limited to one tier. Banks with strong pipelines and lean teams have an incentive to keep recruiting pipelines warm without firm headcount authorization. If you reach a late-stage process, ask directly: "Has headcount been authorized for this role?" before you put more prep in.

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