1. Powell's seat empties May 15. The Fed's April vote was the most divided since 1992.
Chair Jerome Powell's term as Fed chair expires May 15. Nominee Kevin Warsh advanced from the Senate Banking Committee on a 13-11 party-line vote but has not been confirmed by the full Senate, so the chair seat is unsettled through the next FOMC meeting. That makes the next six weeks unusually opaque on rates direction. The April 29 hold vote was 8-4, the most FOMC dissents in a single decision since October 1992, and crucially the four dissents split both ways: one governor wanted a cut to support a softening labor market, three regional presidents opposed the statement's easing bias. The committee is split in both directions, not one. Markets that priced in three cuts in January are now pricing in zero for 2026.
Why you care: Rate uncertainty plus a leaderless Fed is the single largest overhang on sponsor-coverage deal flow heading into summer. Pipelines your target groups are working on get repriced every time spread expectations move.
Interview angle: "The 8-4 split says the Fed's next move is genuinely uncertain. With Powell out May 15 and no successor named, expect spread volatility through the summer. Sponsor coverage groups are baking wider rate-bands into LBO models right now."